Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4053
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4053 · AUS → MFE
departs 2:04 PM CT · arrives 3:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFE
↓
MFE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.03 in
MFE (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.