Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4083
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 4083 · LAX → SMF
departs 9:35 PM PT · arrives 11:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.