Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4087
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4087 · LAX → SAN
departs 6:20 PM PT · arrives 7:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 17%
Wed 11/4 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.