Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 4109 · ATL → SBN
departs 7:42 PM ET · arrives 9:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 17%
Wed 11/4 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.