Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4163
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 4163 · AUS → BNA
departs 7:31 PM CT · arrives 9:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 22%
Wed 11/4 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.11 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.