Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4179
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4179 · LAS → SNA
departs 6:01 PM PT · arrives 7:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 13%
Wed 11/4 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±6 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.