Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4179
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 4179 · SNA → LAS
departs 7:59 PM PT · arrives 9:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 13%
Wed 11/4 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.13 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.