Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4638 · ORD → COS
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/30
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at COS
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
COS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.