OO 4679 · SFO → FAT

left the gate 8:27 AM PT · taxiing (scheduled 8:29 AM PT → 9:38 AM PT)

Your aircraft is N936EV (CRJ2), coming in as OO 5892 from MRY: landed 7:23 AM PT.

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Arrivals into FAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4679 · SFO → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?