OO 4715 · SBA → SFO

took off 8:42 AM PT · expected to land 9:28 AM PT (scheduled 7:57 AM PT → 9:21 AM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 52% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.14 in

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4715 · SBA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?