Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4741 · BUF → ORD
departs 1:46 PM ET · arrives 2:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.