Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4758
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4758 · MRY → SFO
departs 3:41 PM PT · arrives 4:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 36%
Sun 11/1 54%
Mon 11/2 49%
Tue 11/3 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.