Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4764
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4764 · FAT → DEN
departs 12:46 PM PT · arrives 4:42 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.