Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4807 · MAF → DEN
departs 1:45 PM CT · arrives 2:47 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MAF that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
1pm departures from MAF are usually not late
Weather at each end
MAF (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.33 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.