Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4911
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4911 · DFW → ASE
departs 6:46 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at ASE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ASE?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ASE
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,467 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
ASE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.