Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4914
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4914 · ASE → ORD
departs 12:46 PM MT · arrives 4:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 42%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ASE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ASE
Weather at each end
ASE (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.