Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4936
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 4936 · PHX → ELP
departs 10:05 PM MT · arrives 12:29 AM MT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±6 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
OO's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.71 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.