Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4944
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 4944 · MRY → PHX
departs 7:13 PM PT · arrives 9:13 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.