Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4944
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4944 · PHX → MRY
departs 4:55 PM MT · arrives 7:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MRY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MRY?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
MRY (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.