Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4969 · PHX → SJC
departs 1:55 PM MT · arrives 4:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.59 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.