Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4978 · PHX → FAT
departs 1:50 PM MT · arrives 3:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.59 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.