Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4981 · ORD → SBN
departs 7:53 PM CT · arrives 9:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.