Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4990
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4990 · MKE → ORD
departs 3:10 PM CT · arrives 4:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 27%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 38%
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from MKE are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.