Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4992
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4992 · FSD → ORD
departs 7:38 PM CT · arrives 9:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 39%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 833 ft forecast at FSD that day
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
FSD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 833 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip 0.02 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.