Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4995
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4995 · PHX → DSM
departs 1:20 PM MT · arrives 6:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day
↓
DSM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.59 in
DSM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.