Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4998
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4998 · IAH → LAX
departs 8:04 PM CT · arrives 9:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.