Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4998
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4998 · LAX → IAH
departs 2:05 PM PT · arrives 7:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.