Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5230 · IAH → ABQ
departs 4:34 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.