Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5233
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5233 · DEN → AMA
departs 2:10 PM MT · arrives 4:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at AMA that day
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Arrivals into AMA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AMA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.