Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5259
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5259 · SMF → LAX
departs 4:14 PM PT · arrives 6:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.