Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5264 · IAH → XNA
departs 2:35 PM CT · arrives 4:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.