Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5278 · IAH → OKC
departs 6:12 PM CT · arrives 7:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 31%
Tue 11/3 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OKC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.