Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5461 · ORD → MLI
departs 5:52 PM CT · arrives 6:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 38%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MLI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MLI?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
MLI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MLI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.