Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5518 · ROC → ORD
departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 11:43 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.