Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5523 · MRY → LAX
departs 1:54 PM PT · arrives 3:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.