Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5597
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5597 · SFO → SNA
departs 4:58 PM PT · arrives 6:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.