Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5627 · SFO → MRY
departs 5:28 PM PT · arrives 6:41 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MRY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MRY?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MRY (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.