Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5686 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OO 5686 · SGF → ORD

departs 3:14 PM CT · arrives 5:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF

Weather at each end

SGF (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,667 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5686 · SGF → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?