OO 5770 · SFO → SMF

departs 4:10 PM PT · arrives 5:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5770 · SFO → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?