Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 5806 · SFO → SBA
departs 7:01 PM PT · arrives 8:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
OO's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.