Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5811 · SYR → ORD
departs 12:36 PM ET · arrives 1:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
SYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SYR (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.