Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5841 · SEA → SFO
departs 5:23 PM PT · arrives 7:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/30
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
5pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.