Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5862 · XNA → IAH
departs 5:10 PM CT · arrives 6:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from XNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.