Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 5863 · LAX → SBP
departs 10:38 PM PT · arrives 11:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 16%
Wed 11/4 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SBP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBP?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
SBP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.