OO 5875 · SFO → BFL

departs 9:30 PM PT · arrives 10:49 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at BFL more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BFL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BFL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5875 · SFO → BFL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BFL?