Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5885
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5885 · SBN → ORD
departs 7:58 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/29 41%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.