Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5928
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5928 · ORD → TUS
departs 1:04 PM CT · arrives 3:06 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.