Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5936
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5936 · SFO → SBA
departs 4:26 PM PT · arrives 5:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/30
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±11 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Arrivals into SBA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.