Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6215
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 6215 · OKC → PHX
departs 3:08 PM CT · arrives 3:51 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
OKC usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.41 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.59 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.