Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6231
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 6231 · TUS → LAX
departs 12:15 PM MT · arrives 1:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
TUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.